Business outlook: Business confidence index jumps to 149.4 in April-June; NCAER survey flags optimism in sales

India’s business sentiment saw a sharp uptick in the April-June quarter, with the Business Confidence Index (BCI) rising to 149.4 from 139.3 in the previous quarter, according to the latest Business Expectations Survey by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).The index is built on four key components: expectations of overall economic improvement over the next six months, anticipated improvement in firms’ financial positions, views on the present investment climate, and whether capacity utilisation is close to or above optimal levels, PTI reported. NCAER noted that more than 60% of respondents expressed positive views across all four parameters.“The share of positive responses remained above 60% for each component, and every component exhibited an improving trend compared to the previous quarter,” the think tank said.Optimism around production and domestic demand was particularly strong. Around 78.7% of firms said they expect production to rise in the next six months, while 79.1% anticipated an increase in domestic sales. Export sentiment also strengthened, with 66.5% of respondents expecting a rise in outbound shipments of finished goods.Firms were also more positive about their import requirements, with 54.3% expecting an increase in raw material imports, up from 46.1% in the previous quarter—a sign of expected acceleration in domestic manufacturing activity.Nearly 61% of companies surveyed expected pre-tax profits to rise over the next six months, indicating continued buoyancy in business operations.However, this optimism was not reflected in the labour market outlook. Hiring and wage expectations remained unchanged, suggesting a stagnation in employment sentiment.“With moderation in costs, firms were more optimistic about the next six months,” said NCAER Professor Bornali Bhandari, who led the survey.The survey, conducted in June, covered 479 companies across six major Indian cities.